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Source: From IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2004. With permission.

Source: From IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2004. With permission.

The last 10 years of data for energy consumption from British Petroleum Corp. (BP) also shows that the average increase per year was 2%. However, it is important to note (from Table 1.2) that the average worldwide growth from 2001 to 2004 was 3.7% with the increase from 2003 to 2004 being 4.3%. The rate of growth is rising mainly due to the very rapid growth in Pacific Asia, which recorded an average increase from 2001 to 2004 of 8.6%.

More specifically, China increased its primary energy consumption by 15% from 2003 to 2004. Unconfirmed data show similar increases continuing in China, followed by increases in India. Fueled by high increases in China and India, worldwide energy consumption may continue to increase at rates between 3 and 5% for at least a few more years. However, such high rates of increase cannot continue for long. Various sources estimate that the worldwide average annual increase in energy consumption will be 1.6%-2.5% (IEA 2004; IAEA 2005). Based on a 2% increase per year (average of the estimates from other sources), the primary energy demand of 10,345 GTOE in 2002 would double by 2037 and triple by 2057. With such high energy demand expected 50 years from now, it is important to look at all of the available strategies to fulfill the future demand, especially for electricity and transportation.

Although not a technical issue in the conventional sense, no matter what types of engineering scenarios are proposed to meet the rising energy demands world population, as long as exponential growth in world population continues, the attendant problems of energy and food consumption, as well as environmental degradation, may have no long-term solution (Bartlett 2004). Under current demographic trends, the United Nations forecasts a rise in the global population to around 9 billion in the year 2050. This increase in 2.5 billion people will occur mostly in developing countries with aspirations for a higher standard of living. Thus, population growth should be considered as a part of the overall supply and demand picture to assure the success of future global energy and pollution strategy.

1971 2002

Year

FIGURE 1.1 (See color insert following page 774.) World primary energy demand (MTOE). (Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, IEA, Paris, 2004. With permission.)

1971 2002

Year

FIGURE 1.1 (See color insert following page 774.) World primary energy demand (MTOE). (Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, IEA, Paris, 2004. With permission.)

TABLE 1.2 Primary Energy Consumption (MTOE)

Region

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