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a Assumes a constant structure or use of the sector or technology considered. b Refers to the final energy use of the entire sector.

However, that will hasten the time when natural gas production also peaks. Additionally, any increase in coal consumption will worsen the global climate change situation. Although CO2 sequestration is feasible, it is doubtful that there will be any large-scale application of this technology for existing plants. However, all possible measures should be taken to sequester CO2 from new coal-fired power plants. Presently, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear power. However, it is doubtful that nuclear power alone will be able to fill the gap. Forecasts from IAEA show that nuclear power around the world will grow at a rate of 0.5%-2.2% over the next 25 years (IAEA 2005). This estimate is in the same range as that of IEA.

Based on this information it seems logical that the RE technologies of solar, wind and biomass will not only be essential but will hopefully be able to fill the gap and provide a clean and sustainable energy future. Although, wind and photovoltaic power have grown at rates of over 30%-35% per year over the last few years, this growth rate is based on very small existing capacities for these sources. There are many

FIGURE 1.20 Comparison of cost of conserved energy for 2010 standards to projected electricity price in the residential sector.

differing views on the future energy mix. The IEA estimates (Figure 1.21) that the present mix will continue until 2030 (IEA 2004).

On the other hand, the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) estimates that as much as 50% of the world's primary energy in 2050 will come from RE, increasing to 80% by 2100 (Figure 1.22; WBGU 2003). However to achieve that level of RE use by 2050 and beyond will require worldwide effort on the scale of a global Apollo Project.

-Coal -Oil -Gas -Nuclear -Hydro -Other

FIGURE 1.21 (See color insert following page 774.) World primary energy demand by fuel types according to IEA. (From IEA, World Energy Outlook, IEA, Paris, 2004.)

-Coal -Oil -Gas -Nuclear -Hydro -Other

FIGURE 1.21 (See color insert following page 774.) World primary energy demand by fuel types according to IEA. (From IEA, World Energy Outlook, IEA, Paris, 2004.)

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