Consequence Modelling

Once the initiating event is defined, source models are selected to describe how materials are discharged from the process. The source model provides a description of the rate of discharge, the total quantity discharged (or total time of discharge), and the state of the discharge, that is, liquid, vapour or a combination. A dispersion model is subsequently used to describe how the material is transported downwind and dispersed to some concentration levels. If there is an immediate fire or explosion, there is no dispersion. Fire and explosion models convert the source model information on the release into energy hazard potentials such as thermal radiation and explosion overpressures. Finally, effect models convert these incident-specific results into effects on people (injury or death) and structures.

The consequence models employed in the study are those of the program package PHAST Professional (version 6.4), developed by DNV (UK). PHAST (Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool) [49] is a commercial consequence program package used for modelling: discharge, pool formation and evaporation, dense and buoyant gas dispersion, jet and pool fire, BLEVE and vapour cloud explosion, and so on. This section is to summarize the range of consequence models mostly used in PHAST. A detailed description of the models is presented in Appendix E.

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