Road Tanker Truck LH

Similar to the onboard storage in the passenger car, the overall failure frequencies of the LH2 tanker truck was derived from the traffic accident data. Table 5-16 shows that the accident rate of a road transport by truck in Germany is about 1.6 x 10-7/veh.km. As for comparison the truck accident rates (average values) for California, Illinois, and Michigan are 1.5 x 10-6 /veh.km for rural area and 5.8 x 10-6 /veh.km for urban area (see Table 4-2).

As described in the section 3.4.2, the study considered an LH2 truck delivery from a hydrogen plant to the eleven hydrogen filling stations situated in a small city with the roundtrip distance of about 215 km. The route is broken into two segments, i.e. 200 km of the route along rural population and 15 km inside the city. Based on the above information the initiating frequencies of the accident scenarios for the two route segments can be calculated by applying Eq. 4-7. The results (Table 5-20) shows that the initiating frequencies of hydrogen release from the LH2 tanker truck along the distance of 215 km is 1.6 x 10-7/yr. Assuming that the conditional release probability for given accident is 0.02, the estimated associated release frequencies of the two segments (i.e. 200 km and 15 km) are 6.4 x 105/yr (once per 15,625 years), and 4.8 x 10-6/yr (once per 208,333 years), respectively.

Table 5-20 Expected release frequencies of the LH2 truck for given routes

Route Segment

Truck Accident Rate (/veh.km)

Release Probability

Segment Distance (km)

Trip Number(/yr)

Initiating Frequency (/yr)

1

1,60E-07

0,02

200

100

6,4E-05

2

15

100

4,8E-06

Table 5-21 Accident outcome frequencies of the LH2 Truck for given routes

Segment Route

Release Type

Outcome Types

Outcome Probabilities

Frequencies

(/yr)

Segment1

Instantaneous

Early Explosion

0,0360

2,3E-06

Fireball

0,1440

9,2E-06

Pool fire

0,0064

4,1E-07

Late Explosion

0,0000

1,8E-09

Flash Fire

0,0001

7,4E-09

Continuous

Jet Fire

0,4000

2,6E-05

Pool fire

0,0640

4,1E-06

Late Explosion

0,0014

9,2E-08

Flash Fire

0,0058

3,7E-07

No effect segment 1

0,3423

2,2E-05

Overall segment 1

1,0000

6,4E-05

Segment 2

Instantaneous

Early Explosion

0,0360

1,7E-07

Fireball

0,1440

6,9E-07

Pool fire

0,0064

3,1E-08

Late Explosion

0,0000

1,4E-10

Flash Fire

0,0001

5,5E-10

Continuous

Jet Fire

0,4000

1,9E-06

Pool fire

0,0640

3,1E-07

Late Explosion

0,0014

6,9E-09

Flash Fire

0,0058

2,8E-08

No effect segment 2

0,3423

1,6E-06

Overall segment 2

1,0000

4,8E-06

Outcome frequencies are calculated by multiplying the expected initiating frequency (Table 5-20) with the outcome probabilities resulting from the event tree diagram (Fig. 4.5). Table 5-21 shows the outcome frequencies of the two above initiating frequencies assuming that 20% of the release may result in a catastrophic rupture (instantaneous release). This table also shows that the hydrogen release for a given truck accident may lead mostly to fires (which accounted for about 62%), and only about 4% may lead to explosions. The remaining (about 34%) of the releases may has no effect on the population.

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