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With all wind capacity installed at one location, the frequency of no wind production is around 13 per cent. Periods of full load are also quite frequent, occurring approximately 30 per cent of the time. The distribution of annual load factors has two peaks: one at full load and the other at zero load. This is to be expected, considering the shape of a turbine power curve. This pattern is reflected at all locations in the 'no dispersion' scenario.

As capacity is added successively to each location, the probability of no wind production falls to zero. The distribution of load factors takes on a more Gaussian shape, with just one peak around 55 per cent load factor. The majority of production is clustered around the median value, with two-thirds of all load factors between 30 to 70 per cent of total capacity.

Variability

As dispersion increases, the probability of large changes in power from one period to the next falls to zero. This contrasts with the single location case, where changes of up to 100 per cent of installed capacity can occur. With Europe-wide geographic dispersion of wind capacity across at least six locations, the majority of changes in power are less than 10 per cent of installed capacity.

Table 10.3 Load factor distribution Load factor (upper bound) (percentage)

Scenario

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1

24.9

10.2

6.7

4.5

5.0

4.7

3.4

4.5

5.2

31.0

2

11.7

9.2

8.3

6.6

14.2

14.3

7.9

6.6

5.5

15.6

3

4.2

6.5

5.2

14.9

13.5

11.4

16.0

9.9

7.5

10.9

4

1.8

4.1

7.6

13.8

12.7

15.5

12.9

15.0

8.4

8.2

5

1.3

3.6

10.0

12.9

18.7

16.0

18.3

11.9

5.9

1.4

6

1.3

5.4

9.2

14.9

16.9

18.6

16.6

11.2

4.9

0.9

7

1.2

5.2

9.3

14.0

17.0

16.7

16.5

12.7

6.3

1.0

data

Scenario

Portfolio

1

Thames Estuary

2

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

3

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

+ Orkney

4

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

+ Orkney + Celtic Sea

5

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

+ Orkney + Celtic Sea +

Trafalgar

6

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

+ Orkney + Celtic Sea +

Trafalgar

+ Mediterranean

7

Thames Estuary +

Baltic Sea

+ Orkney + Celtic Sea +

Trafalgar

+ Mediterranean + Irish Sea

Source: Hughes and Hurley (2005a, b)

Source: Hughes and Hurley (2005a, b)

Source: Hughes and Hurley (2005a, b)

Figure 10.6 The changes in six-hourly output from one wind farm and a distribution of six wind farms

-90 -80 -70 -60 -SO -40 -SO -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 60 60 70 60 90 100

Change in Power within 6 hours [% ot installed capacity]

Source: Hughes and Hurley (2005a, b)

Figure 10.6 The changes in six-hourly output from one wind farm and a distribution of six wind farms

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Renewable Energy Eco Friendly

Renewable energy is energy that is generated from sunlight, rain, tides, geothermal heat and wind. These sources are naturally and constantly replenished, which is why they are deemed as renewable.

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