Scenarios for renewable energy

Many scenarios have been developed to illustrate future global demand and supply of energy (see Table 2.8). The year 2050 has been chosen for illustrative purposes, which in the literature is a frequently selected year for long-term energy scenarios. Special attention is given to several sets of scenarios: the Renewables-Intensive Global Energy Scenario (RIGES); the scenarios presented by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC); the set of scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); and scenarios defined by Shell International (SI). It is important to note that a larger renewable energy share of total energy supply does not necessarily mean a high quantity of renewable energy, because it depends on the total energy use in the scenario.

Note: The costs of biomass electricity may come down as a result of further technology development. Source: Hoogwijk (2004)

Figure 2.6 Geographical distribution of present costs for biomass energy

Note: The costs of biomass electricity may come down as a result of further technology development. Source: Hoogwijk (2004)

Figure 2.6 Geographical distribution of present costs for biomass energy

Table 2.8 Scenarios for renewable energy, 2050

Total energy demand and supply (EJ)

Total renewable energy

(EJ)

Total renewable energy (%)

RIGESa

512

237

46

IIASA and WECb

479-1040

96-308

22-40

IPCCc

642-1611

73-444

9-35

SId

852 or 1217

282 or 336

a Johansson et al (1993b) b Nakicenovic et al (1998) c IPCC (2000) d SI (2001)

Notes:

a Johansson et al (1993b) b Nakicenovic et al (1998) c IPCC (2000) d SI (2001)

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