Evolution of World Energy Demand

Crude oil production (million metric tonnes)

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1000

1500

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: BR 2003; IEA, 2003a

Figure 1.4 Evolution of Annual Crude Oil Production

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: BR 2003; IEA, 2003a

Figure 1.4 Evolution of Annual Crude Oil Production

Figure 1.4 shows the annual oil production, illustrating the enormous increase in world energy consumption. One million metric tonnes of crude oil have an energy content of about 42 PJ or 42 • 1015 J. Production rates increased exponentially after World War II. Two oil crises, in 1973 and 1978, slowed down this development, holding back the development of world economic growth and the energy demand until 1982.

Table 1.4 shows the world primary energy consumption of different energy sources over much of the last century. The estimation of primary energy equivalents for nuclear electricity and hydro-electricity is inconsistent; the majority of the newer statistics multiply the electricity output of nuclear power stations by 2.6 or 3 to obtain the primary energy demand. This considers the conversion efficiency of thermal power plants to be 38 per cent, or 33 per cent. The efficiency of hydro-electric power plants is much higher and can even reach values of 90 per cent or more. Since the real efficiency of hydro-electric power plants is difficult to estimate during operation, some statistics define the output as primary electricity and assume an efficiency of 100 per cent. Thus, hydro-electric power plants need much less primary energy than nuclear power plants to produce the same amount of electricity. However, statistics comparing the world primary energy supply of nuclear power plants (multiplied by 2.6 or 3) with that of hydro-electric power plants (multiplied by 1) give the impression that the hydro-electricity share is much less than that of nuclear electricity, although the world electricity supply of both is similar. Table 1.4 does not contain other renewable energy sources such as biomass (e.g. firewood and vegetable waste), wind energy, solar energy and geothermal energy. The section in this chapter (p19) on global use of renewable energy resources will describe the contribution of renewable energy.

Table 1.4 World Primary Energy Consumption Excluding Biomass and

Others

Table 1.4 World Primary Energy Consumption Excluding Biomass and

Others

In PJ

1925

1938

1950

1960

1968

1980

2002

Solid fuels3

36,039

37,856

46,675

58,541

67,830

77,118

100,395

Liquid fuelsb

5772

11,017

21,155

43,921

79,169

117,112

147,480

Natural gas

1406

2930

7384

17,961

33,900

53,736

95,543

Hydro-electric

powerc

771

1774

3316

6632

10,179

16,732

24,792

Nuclear powerc

0

0

0

0

463

6476

25,564

Total

43,988

53,577

78,530

127,055

191,541

271,174

393,773

Note: a Hard coal, lignite, etc.; b oil products; c converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38 per cent conversion efficiency Source: Enquete-Kommission, 1995; BF? 2003

Note: a Hard coal, lignite, etc.; b oil products; c converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38 per cent conversion efficiency Source: Enquete-Kommission, 1995; BF? 2003

The global energy demand will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. It is anticipated that the increase in the industrialized nations will be lower than in developing countries, which are nonetheless catching up with the industrialized world. Furthermore, the world population is set to grow in the next few decades. Studies predict that by 2050 the energy demand will increase by a factor of 2.3 to 4 compared to 1990 (IPCC, 2000) (see also Table 1.17). This will intensify the problems of today's already high energy consumption and its consequences, such as the greenhouse effect and the rapid depletion of fossil energy resources.

The energy demand of the continents is totally different as shown in Figure 1.5. The primary energy demand of Europe, Asia and the US is certainly of the same order of magnitude. However, the population in Asia is six times that of Europe and ten times higher than that of the US. Today, the highly populated

Africa 13.1 EJ

Africa 13.1 EJ

Figure 1.5 World Primary Energy Demand by Region in 2001

Source: DOE, 2003

Figure 1.5 World Primary Energy Demand by Region in 2001

Table 1.5 Fossil Fuel Reserves

Crude oil

Natural gas

Coal

Proven reserves3

142.7 billion t

155.8 billion m3

984 billion t

= 5975 EJ

= 4944 EJ

= 28,852 EJ

Production in 2002

3.56 billion t

2.53 billion m3

4.82 billion t

= 149 EJ

= 80 EJ

= 141 EJ

Reserves/production

ratio3

41 years

61 years

204 years

Unproven additional

reservesb

84 billion t

217 billion m3

6668 billion tc

Accumulated

productionb

128.2 billion t

69.6 billion m3

-

Note: a At the end of 2002; b at the end of 2001; c total reserves; 1 t = 1 metric tonne = 2204.62 lb = 1.1023 short tonnes Source: BR 2003; BGR, 2002

Note: a At the end of 2002; b at the end of 2001; c total reserves; 1 t = 1 metric tonne = 2204.62 lb = 1.1023 short tonnes Source: BR 2003; BGR, 2002

and less-developed continents, South America and Africa, have a very small portion of the world primary energy demand. The section headed 'Greenhouse Effect' (see p10), will illustrate this uneven distribution of the energy demand by looking at the per capita carbon dioxide emissions, which correlate strongly with the energy demand.

Getting Started With Solar

Getting Started With Solar

Do we really want the one thing that gives us its resources unconditionally to suffer even more than it is suffering now? Nature, is a part of our being from the earliest human days. We respect Nature and it gives us its bounty, but in the recent past greedy money hungry corporations have made us all so destructive, so wasteful.

Get My Free Ebook


Post a comment