Evolution Overview

The PV module efficiency and cost projections reflect the expected evolutionary development of crystalline-silicon PV modules. The physics of high-efficiency crystalline-silicon laboratory solar cells is now very well understood, and the best laboratory cell performance today, 24%, is nearing best theoretical expectations, around 30% [14,15]. Hence, the best laboratory cell performance is expected to increase between 25% and 28% by 2030. The efficiency of commercial crystalline-silicon PV modules under standard rating conditions is, therefore, assumed to grow slowly to 20%, whic h corresponds to about 80% of the performance for the expected best laboratory cell performance of 25%.

Table 1. Performance and cost indicators (C-Si residential PV systems -- indivk ual/single-home basis*).

Table 1. Performance and cost indicators (C-Si residential PV systems -- indivk ual/single-home basis*).

Base Case

INDICATOR

1997

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

NAME

UNITS

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

Unit Size

kWaC

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Unit Size

kWp dc

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

Unit Size (module area)

m2

20

20

20

20

20

20

PV Module Performance Parameters

PV Module (dc) efficiency

%

14

16

10

17

15

18

20

19

20

20

25

Inverter Efficiency

%

90

91

10

92

15

93

20

94

20

95

25

ac System Efficiency

%

11.3

13.1

10

14.1

15

15.1

20

16.1

20

17.1

25

Annual System Performance in Average-Insolation Location (global sunlight,

in plane, 1800 kWh/m2-yr)

ac Capacity Factor

%

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

Energy/Area

kWh/m2-yr

204

236

253

271

289

308

Energy Produced

kWh/yr

4,082

4,717

5,067

5,424

5,787

6,156

Annual System Performance in High

-Insolation Location (global

sunlight, in

plane, 2300 kWh/m2-yr)

ac Capacity Factor

%

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

Energy/Area

kWh/m2-yr

261

301

324

347

370

393

Energy Produced

kWh/yr

5,216

6,028

6,475

6,930

7,394

7,866

Capital Cost (1997$)

dc Unit Costs

PV Module Cost

$/Wp

3.75

3.04

30

2.34

30

1.80

30

1.07

30

0.63

30

Power-Related BOS

$/Wp

1.50

1.22

30

0.94

30

0.72

30

0.43

30

0.25

30

Area-Related BOS

$/m2

170

138

30

106

30

82

30

48

30

29

30

Area-Related BOS

$/Wp

1.21

0.86

30

0.62

30

0.45

30

0.25

30

0.14

30

Total BOS

$/Wp

2.71

2.08

30

1.56

30

1.17

30

0.68

30

0.40

30

System Total

$/Wp

6.46

5.12

30

3.90

30

2.98

30

1.75

30

1.03

30

System Total

$

18,100

16,400

30

13,300

30

10,700

30

6,600

30

4,100

30

ac Unit Costs

$/Wp

7.86

6.30

30

4.74

30

3.58

30

2.08

30

1.21

30

System Operations and Maintenance Cost

Maintenance (annual)

$/m2-yr

2.0

2.0

30

2.0

50

2.0

50

2.0

50

2.0

50

Total Annual Costs

$/yr

40

40

30

40

50

40

50

40

50

40

1. Area-related BOS costs restated to their "power-related" equivalent.

2. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

3. Residential system installation (i.e. "construction") requires several hours or days.

^ This table reflects an "individual system" scenario, while Table 2 displays further cost reductions possible through volume purchasing.

Notes:

1. Area-related BOS costs restated to their "power-related" equivalent.

2. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

3. Residential system installation (i.e. "construction") requires several hours or days.

^ This table reflects an "individual system" scenario, while Table 2 displays further cost reductions possible through volume purchasing.

Table 2. Performance and cost indicators (C-Si residential PV systems -- network neighborhood)

Base Case

INDICATOR

1997

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

NAME

UNITS

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

+/- %

Unit Size

kW ac

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Unit Size

kWp dc

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

Unit Size (module area)

m2

20

20

20

20

20

20

Number of Houses

--

130

385

357

333

313

294

Plant Size

kW ac

299

1,001

1,000

999

1,002

1,000

PV Module Performance Parameters

PV Module (dc)

%

14

16

10

17

15

18

20

19

20

20

25

Inverter Efficiency

%

90

91

10

92

15

93

20

94

20

95

25

ac System Efficiency

%

11.3

13.1

10

14.1

15

15.1

20

16.1

20

17.1

25

Annual System Performance in Average-Insolation Location (global sunlight,

in plane, 1800 kWh/m2-yr)

ac Capacity Factor

%

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.5

Energy/Area

kWh/m2-yr

204

236

253

271

289

308

Energy Produced/Unit

kWh/yr

4,082

4,717

5,067

5,424

5,787

6,156

Annual System Performance in High

-Insolation Location (global

sunlight, in

plane, 2300 kWh/m2-yr)

ac Capacity Factor

%

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

26.3

Energy/Area

kWh/m2-yr

261

301

324

347

370

393

Energy Produced/Unit

kWh/yr

5,216

6,028

6,475

6,930

7,394

7,866

Capital Cost (1997$)

dc Unit Costs

PV Module Cost

$/Wp

3.15

2.55

30

1.97

30

1.51

30

0.90

30

0.53

30

Power-Related BOS

$/Wp

1.30

1.05

30

0.81

30

0.62

30

0.37

30

0.22

30

Area-Related BOS

$/m2

150

122

30

94

30

72

30

43

30

25

30

Area-Related BOS

$/Wp

1.07

0.76

30

0.55

30

0.40

30

0.22

30

0.13

30

Total BOS

$/Wp

2.37

1.81

30

1.36

30

1.03

30

0.59

30

0.35

30

System Total

$/Wp

5.52

4.37

30

3.33

30

2.54

30

1.49

30

0.88

30

System Total

$

15,500

14,000

30

11,300

30

9,100

30

5,700

30

3,500

30

ac Unit Costs

$/Wp

6.72

5.34

30

4.04

30

3.05

30

1.77

30

1.04

30

System Operations and Maintenance Cost

Maintenance (annual)

$/m2-yr

2.0

2.0

30

2.0

50

2.0

50

2.0

50

2.0

50

Unit Annual Costs

$/yr

40

40

30

40

50

40

50

40

50

40

1. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

2. Complete system installation (i.e. "construction") on all houses is assumed to require six months.

Notes:

1. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

2. Complete system installation (i.e. "construction") on all houses is assumed to require six months.

Future years, beginning about 2020, may also see the introduction of building-integrated PV elements (e.g., P V shingles, etc.) that have much improved aesthetics and may further reduce net system costs by replacing other roofn g materials [7, 11]. Future years might also see the introduction of thin-film PV technologies [12]. The building -integrated PV and thin-film PV technologies have lower performance compared to crystalline-silicon PV modules a t present. The module efficiency is a very important issue for commercial and residential roof PV systems because th e available space is fixed. Despite possible improvements in areal ($/m2) or power ($/W) costs of these advanced P V technologies, their introduction into residential and commercial roof PV systems will probably require performanc e levels comparable to crystalline-silicon PV. The expected evolutionary development of thin-film PV modules i s reviewed in a companion report [12]. The more favorable cost reductions projected for thin-film PV technology would reduce projected system costs in Tables 1 and 2 using crystalline-silicon PV technology projections proportionately .

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