Performance and Cost Discussion

From the above discussion, one of three basic scenarios will happen: (1) no solarizable engine will be commercialized and, therefore, significant commercialization is unlikely, (2) a solarizable engine will be introduced, therefor e spawning a fledgling dish/engine business or industry, and (3) a solarizable engine will be introduced and power tower projects will be initiated. Under this scenario, a large and robust solar dish/engine industry will transpire. Of course , numerous variations on the above scenarios are possible but are impossible to predict, much less consider. For th e purpose of this analysis, the second scenario is assumed. The cost and performance data in the table reflect thi s scenario. As discussed in Section 3.0, a STM 4-120 or Kockums 4-95 is assumed to become commercial by 2000, with a dish/engine industry benefiting from mass production. This scenario is consistent with the commercialization plan s of General Motors and STM for the STM 4-120.

Although a Brayton engine for industrial generator sets is also a potential positive development, the table considers a dish/Stirling system. A hybrid capability has been included in the table for the year 2000 and beyond. A capacit y factor of 50% is assumed. This corresponds to a solar fraction of 50%.

The following paragraphs provide the basis for the cost and performance numbers in the table. System and component costs are from industry sources and independent SunLab analyses. Costs for the MDA system are from [15]. Th e installed costs include the cost of manufacturing the concentrator and power conversion unit (PCU), shipment to th e site, site preparation, installation of the concentrator and PCU, balance of plant (connection to utility grid). Th e component costs include a 30% profit. These costs are similar to those projected by SAIC at the same

Table 1. Performance and cost indicators.

1980's Prototype

Hybrid

Commercial Engine

Heat Pipe Receiver

Higher

Higher

System

Production

Production

INDICATOR

1997

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

NAME

UNITS

H/-%

+/-%

+/-%

+/-%

+/-%

Typical Plant Size, MW

MW

0.0251

1

50

30

50

30

50

30

50

30

50

Performance

Capacity Factor

%

12.4

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

Solar Fraction

%

100

50

50

50

50

50

Dish module rating

kW

25.0

25.0

25.0

27.5

27.5

27.5

Per Dish Power Production

MWh/yr/dish

27.4

109.6

109.6

120.6

120.6

120.6

Capital Cost

Concentrator

$/kW

4,200

15

2,800

15

1,550

15

500

15

400

15

300

15

Receiver

200

15

120

15

80

15

90

15

80

15

70

15

Hybrid

500

30

400

30

325

30

270

30

250

30

Engine

5,500

15

800

20

260

25

100

25

90

25

90

25

Generator

60

15

50

15

45

15

40

15

40

15

40

15

Cooling System

70

15

65

15

40

15

30

15

30

15

30

15

Electrical

50

15

45

15

35

15

25

15

25

15

25

15

Balance of Plant

500

15

425

15

300

15

250

15

240

15

240

15

Subtotal (A)

10,580

4,805

2,710

1,360

1,175

1,045

General Plant Facilities (B)

220

15

190

15

150

15

125

15

110

15

110

15

Engineering Fee, 0.1*(A+B)

1,080

500

286

149

128

115

Project /Process Contingency

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Plant Cost

11,880

5,495

3,146

1,634

1,413

1,270

Prepaid Royalties

0

0

0

0

0

0

Init Cat & Chem. Inventory

120

15

60

15

12

15

6

15

6

15

6

15

Startup Costs

350

15

70

15

35

15

20

15

18

15

18

15

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Inventory Capital

200

15

40

15

12

15

4

15

4

15

4

15

Land, @$16,250/ha

26

26

26

26

26

26

Subtotal

696

196

85

56

54

54

Total Capital Requirement

12,576

5,691

3,231

1,690

1,467

1,324

Total Capital Req. w/o Hybrid

12,576

5,191

2,831

1,365

1,197

1,074

Operation and Maintenance Cost

Labor

^/kWh

12.00

15

2.10

25

1.20

25

0.60

25

0.55

25

0.55

25

Material

^/kWh

9.00

15

1.60

25

1.10

25

0.50

25

0.50

25

0.50

25

Total

^/kWh

21.00

3.70

2.30

1.10

1.05

1.05

1. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

2. The construction period is assumed to be <1year for a MW scale system.

Notes:

1. The columns for "+/-%" refer to the uncertainty associated with a given estimate.

2. The construction period is assumed to be <1year for a MW scale system.

production rates [19]. These projections are also consistent with similar estimates by Cummins and with projection s by SunLab engineers. Because of the proprietary nature of cost information, detailed breakdowns of cost estimates are not available in the public domain. Costs are also extremely sensitive to production rates. The installed costs are , therefore, extremely dependent on the market penetration actually achieved. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs are also based on [15]. They take into account realistic reliability estimates for the individual components. They ar e also reasonably consistent with O&M for the Luz trough plants and large wind farms. Component costs are a stron g function of production rates. Production rate assumptions are also provided. The economic life of a dish/engine power plant is 30 years. The construction period is much less than one year.

Renewable Energy Eco Friendly

Renewable Energy Eco Friendly

Renewable energy is energy that is generated from sunlight, rain, tides, geothermal heat and wind. These sources are naturally and constantly replenished, which is why they are deemed as renewable.

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