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FIGURE 6.12 Primary fuel consumption if the Danish energy system is converted into 100 per cent RES.

2Excerpts reprinted from Energy, 34/5, Henrik Lund & Brian Vad Mathiesen, "Energy System Analy sis of 100 Percent Renewable Energy Systems," pp. 524 531 (2009), with permission from Elsevier.

Danish Alternative (Biomass transport)

Wind power

Electricity demand 37,0 TWh

Photovoltaic

Electrolyzer

¡J Solar thermal 2,1 TWh

| CHP, HP and Power plants

Biomass 90,4 TWh

Fuel Total 90,4 TWh

41,4 TWh

District heating grid loss 25%

Household & Industry

Bio-fuel production 31,0 TWh

Bio-fuel production

Heat demand 56,8 TWh

Transport 50,7 TWh

FIGURE 6.13 The energy flow in a 100 percent Danish renewable energy system. The top dia gram is based on electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles referring to Figure 6.12, and the bottom diagram refers to the biofuel alternative.

on mostly wind power, which will involve a large share of hydrogen or similar energy carriers leading to certain inefficiencies in the system design.

In the project of the Danish Society of Engineers, the method applied to the design of a future energy system in Denmark was a combination of two phases: a creative phase involving the inputs of a number of experts and a detailed analytical phase involving technical and economic analyses of the overall system and feedback on each individual proposal. In a back-and-forth process, each proposal was formed in such way that it combined the best of the detailed expert knowledge with the ability of the proposal to fit well into the overall system, in terms of technical innovation, efficient energy supply, and socioeconomic feasibility.

First, the Danish Society of Engineers appointed 2006 as the "Energy Year" in which the organization aimed at making specific proposals to advocate an active energy policy in Denmark. The targets formulated for the future Danish energy system, 2030 (IDA 2030), were (1) maintain the security of energy supply, (2) cut CO2 emissions by 50 percent by 2030 compared to the 1990 level, and (3) create employment and increase exports in the energy industry by a factor of four. The target of maintaining the security of supply refers to the fact that Denmark, at present, is a net exporter of energy from the production of oil and natural gas in the North Sea. However, the reserves are expected to last for only a few more decades. Consequently, Denmark will soon either have to start importing energy or develop domestic renewable energy alternatives.

Based on such targets, the work of the Danish Society of Engineers was divided into seven themes under which three types of seminars were held: a status and knowledge seminar, a future scenario seminar, and a road map seminar. The process resulted in a number of suggestions and proposals on how each theme could contribute to the national targets.

The contributions involved a large series of energy demand-side management and efficiency measures within households, industry, and transportation, together with a wide range of improved energy conversion technologies and renewable energy sources, putting emphasis on energy efficiency, CO2 reduction, and industrial development. All such proposals were described in relation to a Danish year 2030 "business-as-usual" reference (Ref 2030). These descriptions involved technical consequences as well as investment and operation and maintenance costs.

In a parallel process, all proposals were analyzed technically in an overall energy system analysis using the EnergyPLAN computer model. The energy system analysis was conducted in the following steps:

1. First, the Danish Energy Authority's official "business-as-usual" scenario for year 2030 (Ref 2030) was recalculated using the EnergyPLAN model. It was possible, on the basis of the same inputs, to come to the same conclusions regarding annual energy balances, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions. Consequently, a common understanding of Ref 2030 was established.

2. Second, each of the proposals for year 2030 was defined as a change of the reference system, and a first rough alternative was calculated including all changes. The creation of such a system led to a number of technical and economic imbalances, and, consequently, proposals of negative feasibility were reconsidered and suitable investments in flexibility were added to the system.

In the EnergyPLAN model, the analysis was done by basing the operation of the system on a business-economic optimization of each production unit. Such optimization included taxes and involved electricity prices on the international electricity market. The socioeconomic consequences for the Danish society did not include taxes. The calculation of consequences was based on the following basic assumptions:

• World market fuel costs equal an oil price of US$68/barrel (with a sensitivity of US$40 and US$98/barrel).

• Investment and operation costs are based on official Danish technology data, if available, and if not, on the input from the "Energy Year" experts.

• An interest real rate of 3 percent is used (with a sensitivity of 6 percent).

• Environmental costs are not included in the calculation, apart from CO2 emission trade prices of 20 EUR/ton (with a sensitivity of 40 EUR/ton).

A technical analysis and a feasibility study were conducted of each individual proposal. Since many of the proposals were not independent in nature, such an analysis was conducted for each proposal, in both the reference "business-as-usual" system (Ref 2030) and the alternative system (IDA 2030). One proposal the insulation of houses may be feasible in the reference but not in the alternative system; for instance, if solar thermal was applied to the same houses or if the share of CHP was increased as part of the overall strategy. Consequently, several of the contributions and proposals had to be reconsidered and coordinated with other contributions.

The proposed alternatives of the Danish Society of Engineers (IDA 2030 and 2050) were compared to both the present situation (2004) and to a "business-as-usual" reference scenario for 2030 (Ref 2030), assuming that the gross energy consumption (primary energy supply) would rise from 850 PJ in 2004 to 970 PJ in 2030. The IDA 2030 and 2050 alternatives were defined as a series of changes to the "business-as-usual" reference in 2030. IDA 2030 is an alternative for year 2030, and IDA 2050 is a 100 percent renewable energy system alternative for 2050. The different energy systems included everything, as well as natural gas consumption on the drilling platforms in the North Sea and jet fuel for international air transportation.

After completing the back-and-forth process of comparison and discussion among experts and the overall systems analysis, the proposals of IDA 2030 ended up being the following:

• Reduce space heating demand in buildings by 50 percent

• Reduce fuel consumption in industry by 40 percent

• Reduce electricity demand in private households by 50 percent and in industry by 30 percent

• Supply 15 percent of individual and district heating demands by solar thermal

• Increase electricity production from industrial CHP by 20 percent

• Reduce fuel consumption in the North Sea by 45 percent through savings, CHP, and efficiency measures

• Slow down the increase in transportation demand through tax reforms

• Replace 20 percent of road transportation with ships and trains

• Replace 20 percent of fuel for road transportation with biofuels and 20 percent with electricity

• Replace natural gas boilers by micro fuel cell CHP, equal to 10 percent of house heating

• Replace individual house heating by district heating CHP, equal to 10 percent

• Replace future power stations constructed after 2015 by fuel cell CHP stations, equal to 35 40 percent of the total amount of power stations in 2030

• Increase the total amount of biomass resources (including waste) from the present 90 PJ to 180 PJ in 2030

• Increase wind power from the present 3000 MW to 6000 MW in 2030

• Introduce 500 MW wave power and 700 MW photovoltaic power

• Introduce 450 MWe heat pumps in combination with existing CHP systems and flexible electricity demand to achieve a better integration of wind power and CHP into the energy system

It should be emphasized that the proposal of adding heat pumps and flexible demand was an outcome of the overall energy systems analysis process, which pointed out that the potential of flexible production should be exploited in the best possible way to overcome balancing problems in electricity and district heating supplies. Especially with regard to CHP stations based on solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology, such stations should exploit the potentials of changing production quickly without losing efficiency and within the full range of loads.

The results of the socioeconomic feasibility study and the export potentials are shown in Figures 6.14 and 6.15. Figure 6.14 illustrates the economic costs related to Denmark's energy consumption and production in Ref 2030 and in IDA 2030, respectively. In Figure 6.15, the business potential of IDA 2030 is shown, calculated as expected exports in 2030 and compared to the data of 2004.

Socioeconomic feasibility is calculated as annual costs, including fuel and operation, and annual investment costs based on a certain lifetime and interest rate. The feasibility study has been carried out with three different oil prices

Economic costs

Million DKK per year

Million DKK per year

Ref 2030 IDA 2030

FIGURE 6.14 Economic costs of IDA 2030, the energy plan for 2030 of the Danish Society of Engineers.

Ref 2030 IDA 2030

FIGURE 6.14 Economic costs of IDA 2030, the energy plan for 2030 of the Danish Society of Engineers.

Business potential

Energy-efficient renovation Biofuels Bioethanol Heat pumps Fuel cells Wave power Solar thermal Photovoltaics Management and measuring

Electricity, oil and gas management Wind power

District heating and CHP FIGURE 6.15 Business potential of IDA 2030.

Export in billion DKK per year

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Getting Started With Solar

Getting Started With Solar

Do we really want the one thing that gives us its resources unconditionally to suffer even more than it is suffering now? Nature, is a part of our being from the earliest human days. We respect Nature and it gives us its bounty, but in the recent past greedy money hungry corporations have made us all so destructive, so wasteful.

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