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10,400

Source: Author's correspondence36

Source: Author's correspondence36

The best estimate is that only 37,000 systems were installed under the fee-forservice approach in South Africa between 1999 and 2006. If we compare this with Sri Lanka's achievement of 100,000 systems sold and installed in eight years, or Bangladesh's achievement of the same number in just four years, we see a big difference.

Moreover, the subsidy per system installed was high. For just 37,000 systems installed over 10 years, South Africa will have borne a subsidy burden in excess of US$18 million (more than US$500 per system). Compare this to Sri Lanka, where best estimates are that the country achieved 100,000 for roughly US$12.5 million in subsidy ($125 per system), or Bangladesh, where the figures are estimated at only US$6.4 million for 100,000 systems ($64 per system).37 The net result is that fee-for-service ends up costing a government more for less diffusion (Figure 7.11).

Thus it is not surprising that, as the programme progressed, the DME started to dither, and ultimately started to divert the funds intended for off-grid solar to normal grid electrification. It was clear the DME felt they were not

Years
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